Commerzbank predicts palladium will hit $1,350 by 2026, despite a recent 44% increase

by VT Markets

Oct 7, 2025

Palladium’s price has surged by 44% since the year’s start, with recent increases. Despite this, it trails behind the other main precious metals in performance.

The weak demand over recent years, particularly due to reduced sales in the automotive industry, affects Palladium. A larger proportion of its demand comes from the automotive sector compared to Platinum. In May, the WPIC predicted a supply surplus in the Palladium market for next year, but expectations have shifted.

Demand prospects have been adjusted upwards, pushing the expected supply surplus to 2028. Signs of easing in the Palladium market suggest limited potential for price recovery.

Commerzbank has updated its forecast for Palladium, anticipating it will reach $1,350 per troy ounce by the end of 2026. Previously, the price forecast was set at $1,300, but no further price increases are expected next year. The analysis has been compiled by FXStreet’s Insights Team, which curates market observations from notable experts and supplements them with additional insights.

With the price of palladium now trading around $1,220 an ounce, the forecast for $1,350 by the end of 2026 suggests a steady but limited upward path. This environment favors strategies that capitalize on a gradual rise rather than a sharp rally. For the coming weeks, we should consider establishing moderately bullish positions.

The key driver remains the automotive industry, where demand had been weak. However, global auto sales figures for the third quarter of 2025 showed a surprising 2% increase in hybrid vehicle production, a sector that still relies on palladium. This recent data supports the view that demand prospects are firming up, delaying an expected supply surplus.

Given this outlook, buying long-dated call options with strike prices around $1,300 and expiry dates in mid-2026 could be a prudent move. We remember the extreme volatility of past years, such as the decline from over $3,000 in 2022 to below $1,000 in late 2023, making defined-risk strategies like bull call spreads particularly attractive. This approach allows us to profit from the expected rise while capping our potential downside.

On the supply side, the market appears tighter than anticipated just a few months ago. Recent reports from major South African mining groups in September 2025 indicated ongoing operational challenges. This lends credibility to the idea that a significant supply surplus will not materialize until 2028, providing a solid floor for prices in the near term.

Read the full article at:  Commerzbank predicts palladium will hit $1,350 by 2026, despite a recent 44% increase - VT Markets