The Outlook for Platinum Automotive Demand

Platinum has been used in autocatalysts in internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles for almost fifty years, and automotive demand is the single largest demand segment for platinum, accounting for around 40 per cent of annual platinum demand. As a result, automotive demand is key to platinum’s supply-demand fundamentals and the size of this demand segment results in developments here having a significant impact on investor sentiment towards platinum.

This year, automotive demand for platinum is forecast to grow by 12 per cent to 3,255 koz (+357 koz year-on-year). This growth is predicated on two major trends – higher platinum loadings per vehicle due to tighter emissions regulations and increasing platinum-for-palladium substitution in gasoline autocatalysts. This substitution could see platinum displace as much as 615 koz of what could have otherwise been palladium demand in 2023.

While the electrification of the global fleet is essential to meet global emissions reductions targets, not all vehicle applications or geographies are compatible with electrification using current battery technologies. Consequently, ICE vehicles will remain a material part of the drivetrain mix for the foreseeable future, albeit a gradually declining one with increasing mild hybridisation.

ICE automotive demand is expected to peak in 2025 at 3,496 koz, before slowly declining thereafter. Decline in platinum demand from ICE will be offset by growing fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) demand which will, ultimately, lead to total automotive platinum demand exceeding current levels.